Semiconductor manufacturers will experience a supply shortage until at least 2023. The lack of supply from these producers is due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry.
Reporting from CNBC International, Thursday (13/5/2021), it is stated that this problem will not show any signs of abating, some even refer to this condition as ‘chipageddon’.
The vice president of research at advisory firm Forrester Glenn O’Donnell said the shortfall could last until 2023.
“As demand will remain high and supply will remain constrained, we expect this shortfall to persist through 2022 to 2023,” he wrote.
He expects demand for computers (PCs), which contain some of the most advanced chips, to fall next year, although not by much.
Meanwhile, he estimates that data centers filled with computer servers will buy more chips next year.
Plurimi Investment Managers CIO Patrick Armstrong said the chip shortage would last for 18 months.
“It’s not just automotive. It’s cell phones. It’s the internet of everything. There are so many things now that require more chips than they ever did in the past,” he said.
In addition, the car industry is also currently starting to be affected by the global chip shortage, even more so than other sectors.
The world’s largest chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) estimated earlier this month the company would be able to catch up with automotive demand in June. But Armstrong called this target too ambitious.
“If you listen to Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, they all highlight that there is a bottleneck in capacity and they can’t get the chips they need to produce new cars,” he said.
On a separate occasion, Gartner said the shortage would continue throughout 2021 and would impact all types of chips and increase chip prices.
Gartner analyst Alan Priestley said the situation might improve for some sectors in the next six months, but there could be additional effects through 2022.
“It shouldn’t be much longer. The industry is implementing more capacity, but it takes time,” he explained.
Intel announced in March that it had budgeted $20 billion for two new chip factories in Arizona. Intel also said it could build factories in Europe if it received public funding.
“It’s going to be two or three years before we start to see it. But it’s really going to meet future demand,” he said.
Meanwhile, the chief executive of German chipmaker Infineon Reinhard Ploss said that the semiconductor industry is in uncharted territory.
He said it was clear it would take time for supply and demand to be rebalanced.
“I think two years is too long, but we will definitely see it reach 2022. I think additional capacity will come. I expect a more balanced situation in the next calendar year,” he explained.
Wenzhe Zhao, director of global economics and strategy at Credit Suisse said the recent shortage of chips has driven stockpiles along the chip production chain, widening the gap between rising demand and stagnant supply.
Zhao said the new semiconductor production capacity would not come online until 2022 or after. There is little that can be done to address current shortfalls other than adjusting order books, production schedules, and prices.